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statistical significance

The ‘Perfect’ Regression: A Device for Demonstrating Spuriousness and Overfitting

February 9, 2026

dart board with darts missing the target, and off to the side

By Joseph G. Eisenhauer Misinterpretation of regression results—particularly confusion between correlation, causation, and predictive power—remains a challenge in statistics education. This paper introduces the “perfect” regression as a pedagogical device for illustrating spurious correlation and overfitting. Using extreme cases with small samples and randomly generated … [Read more...] about The ‘Perfect’ Regression: A Device for Demonstrating Spuriousness and Overfitting

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Statistics Teacher (ST) is an online journal published by the American Statistical Association (ASA) – National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) Joint Committee on Curriculum in Statistics and Probability for Grades K-12. ST supports the teaching and learning of statistics through education articles, lesson plans, announcements, professional development opportunities, technology, assessment, and classroom resources. Authors should use this form to submit articles or lesson plans.

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